About That Point Spread, Pt. 1

Depending on the sportsbook, Georgia is listed at somewhere around a 12 point favorite over the Gators.  Obviously the biggest point spread in quite sometime.

I, like many of you, had a major freak out moment on October 9 when the Gurley news broke. That date was also my wife’s birthday, and we had planned a dinner and movie date night to celebrate. My phone was constantly buzzing during Gone Girl (which, by the way, is a good movie). She finally told me to put the phone up.  That was actually a good thing.  I didn’t wallow in despair all night.

I had a feeling that Georgia would rally around each other and win against Missouri.  I didn’t expect them to win like that, but I thought they would pull it out.   I then expected Georgia to come out flat the rest of the way; Richt does his best when his teams are in a corner, but I incorrectly thought that he has finally run out of rabbits to pull out of his hat. 

Another reason I felt better about Missouri heading into that game is that Vegas didn’t move the line.  Georgia was in the neighborhood of -3 before the Gurley news, and stayed at -3. So that told me that Vegas knew something we all didn’t.  And as they say on 960 The Ref, those Casinos just don’t build themselves.

Georgia was again in the -3 neighborhood on the road against Arkansas.  I would think with Gurley, that line would have been bigger.  It didn’t matter, as Georgia covered the spread with ease.

Which takes me to the Florida game.  The Dawgs are laying 12.  When If the Gurley reinstatement news comes out, it will be interesting to see how the line moves.

If it jumps up, that would make sense and make me feel even better about the game.

But if it stays at 12, then it tells me one of two things.  One, it would say that even without the best player in college football, Vegas thinks that the Dawgs should handle the Gators.

Or…if it still stays the same, does that mean that Vegas already knew that Gurley would be reinstated?  Vegas knows. They always know.

Corbindawg

 

 

 
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3 Responses to “About That Point Spread, Pt. 1”


  1. 1 dave October 27, 2014 at 10:06 am

    It’s an interesting thought, but to clarify, Vegas doesn’t “think” any team will win or lose by a certain amount. Odds makers set lines at a point where they feel they’ll get equal bets on both sides, in order to always make a profit on “the juice.” If a bettor loses, he loses the entire amount he bet. However, if he wins, the sportsbook only pays out 90% or so (varies). So, in a perfect world for the sportsbook, bettors bet $1 million on Florida and $1 million on Georgia, and they come away with a guaranteed $100,000 profit on that game.

    • 2 Corbindawg October 27, 2014 at 10:11 am

      I get that Vegas wants equal betting on both sides, but they also have the lines set at a point to get the action. There is no way I’m touching this game, but if I had to guess, I’d take the Gators getting the points.

      • 3 Reverend Whitewall October 27, 2014 at 1:22 pm

        Yes but they wouldn’t set a line based on inside knowledge that the general betting public doesn’t know, especially if they’re trying to get equal money on both sides. If they intentionally set the line high because they somehow knew for sure Gurley is available, the people laying money would jump all over betting on the Gators because the line would be artificially high from a public knowledge standpoint, and the line would shift down very quickly. But in fact it’s done the opposite, it has gone up since originally posted. I just don’t think there’s anything we can read into the line based on Gurley’s status. But regardless, the NCAA is gonna have a bunch of pitchfork-wielding folks donned in Red & Black if they don’t get this decision right. 🙂

        And I agree with you that if I were bettor, I’d take the points. I’d love nothing more than for us to deliver an epic beatdown of them, but history sure doesn’t give me much confidence. I’ll take a win by any margin tho!


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