How Will Georgia Fare ATS this year?

In taking a page from the 960 The Ref’s Play Book, each week during the football season we give 3 picks.  I have had pretty good success.  One team I usually always pick to cover is Oklahoma, becuase Bob Stoops is an asshole and will run up the score if he gets a chance.  Oregon is usually a pretty safe bet also.  Last year, LSU usually worked out for me. 

I don’t bet on Georgia.  I think all of last season I bet on the Dawgs just a couple of times.  I know for sure I picked them in the Florida game; outside of that, I don’t have a good handle on how the team I follow the closest is going to do.  I guess it is becuase I am irrational.  I either get too upset with them or too excited and let my decision making sway that way.

But as Seth Emerson and others noted the other day, Vegas came out with their early spreads.  Georgia is an 8-1 favorite to win the BCS National Championship.  Georgia is favored in all of their games except South Carolina, where the home team Gamecocks are a 4 point favorite. 

Georgia is not very good ATS.  I don’t have last year’s Phil Steele in front of me, and I don’t care to look it up.  If you care, go to Google. But from 2001-2010, in that 10 year period UGA was only 61-60-3 ATS.

 This is VERY early, but if I were going to bet on the SEC games right now, this is how I would go:

Georgia (-3) at Missouri-If Georgia wins this game, I don’t think it will be by just a field goal.  I think this game has the potential to be like the 2009 Arkansas game, where Georgia gets behind early on the road, then comes back and after its defense settles down, and controls the game in the second half.  With a defense that will not have a lot of depth, look for a shoot out here.  I think Georgia covers here. 

Vanderbilt at Georgia (-17)- Last time the Commies came to Athens, it was brutal shut out.  Grantham will want this game, and with this being the first SEC game, I would expect a good crowd at Sanford.  17 is a lot of chalk for Georgia, and a lot in in an SEC game, but I think the Dawgs defense will be back at near full strenght with Commings definately back.  I like the Dawgs defense to shut down Vandy and Georgia’s offense to do just enough to cover the spread.

Tennessee at Georgia (-12)-Last year, Tennessee was completely gutted by injuries.  Tennessee could be much better this year if Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter are healthy again.  Georgia should win this game, but it will be closer than the experts think right now.  Tennessee covers the 12. 

Georiga (+4) at South Carolina-Except for the last two games in Sanford Stadium, this game is usually always a low scoring game.  South Carolina has its issues at QB resolved, and if Lattimore is back, look for a classic SEC slugfets.  Plus, Colombia is always a shop of horros for Georgia.  The Gamecocks win and cover but not by much. 

Georiga (-17.5) at Kentucky-The last time the Dawgs went to Lexington, a runningback with a troubled past had a career day, and the Dawgs cruised to victory.  Look for more of the same again.  Georgia covers. 

Florida vs. Georgia (-2)-Phil Steele likes the Gators in 2012.  I just don’t see it.  Georgia’s defense will be at full strength, and I think the Dawgs cover the two points.

Ole Miss at Georgia (-24.5)-Georgia will win, but after an emotional game at the Cocktail Party, and with the big rival Auburn on the horizion, the Dawgs will win, but in a similar fashion as they did last year.  Get ahead early, then just let the defense and running game milk the clock to what will appear to be a lackluster vicotry.  Georgia wins but does not cover.

Georgia (-1.5) at Auburn-Brian Van Gorder and Willie Martinez’s reuninon will be a good thing for Auburn, but their offense will take a hit with the departure of Dyer and Malzahn.  This series has been traditionally close, but the last 11 seasons, 6 have been blowouts either way and the other 5 have been within a TD.  5 of Richt’s 7 victories against Auburn have been blowouts, and while I don’t think that Auburn will get blown out many times this season, I do think that Georgia will win and cover the spread.

I think that Georgia goes 7-1 in the East, but only 5-3 ATS. 



3 Responses to “How Will Georgia Fare ATS this year?”

  1. 1 Fat Elvis June 7, 2012 at 4:09 pm

    help me, what does “ATS stand for?

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