Let’s Talk Some Real Football

Ok, enough on Joe Pa and Penn State.  Georgia has a vital football game this weekend, not only for essentially clinching the SEC East for the first time since 2005, but a victory over Auburn would be big step in the right direction of getting our program back on track.

Georgia opened at a 12 point favorite, which was surprising.  Even more surprising, the line moved the opposite way which I thought it would to now Georgia is a 13 point favorite depending on the sportsbook.

Georgia and Auburn host similar records and accopmlishments.  Auburn nor Georgia have beaten anyone, and the good teams they have played each team has lost.  Auburn lost to Clemson, LSU and Arkansas.  Georgia has lost to Boise State and South Carolina.  Neither has beaten a good team.

Let’s go to cfbstats.com…

Georgia is 4th in the SEC in scoring offense at 35 ppg, while Auburn is 11th in scoring defense at 27 ppg.  Georiga’s scoring defense is at 19.9 ppg, 4th in the SEC, while Auburn brings in the 7th ranked scoring offense at 26 ppg.  Georgia is on average socring nearly 10 ppg more than Auburn. 

The lone bright spot for Auburn has been the rushing  yards per game.  Auburn is second in the SEC with 191 ypg on the ground, while the UGA defense is 3rd in the conference,  only yielding 91.22 ypg on the ground.  Auburn’s run defense, however, is 10th in the SEC giving up 185 ypg on the ground.  Georgia is averaging 100 yards less a agame on defense than what Auburn gets on the ground, so something has got to give there.  Crowell should have a good day on Saturday.

Georgia has played more disciplined than Auburn this year, with a turnover margin of +8 compared to the Tigers’ +2.  Georgia is 4th in the SEC with 46 penalty yards per game compared to 9th ranked Auburn at about 57 yards per game (both about the same as a year ago).

The key to the game:

If Georgia does its thing, it shouldn’t really be close.  However, as I have chronicled all season long, the UGA defense is better than the scoring defense.  Boise State, Coastal Carolina, Tennessee and New Mexico State are the only games this season where the offense or special teams have not given the opposing team free points and points.  The other 5, the defense hasn’t even been on the field when most of the points were scored.  IF the Dawgs don’t give away any freebies, go ahead and book a hotel in Atlanta the first weekend in December. 


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